Descriptive Fire Danger is based on two outputs from the National Fire-Danger Reporting System (NFDRS4) model: Staffing Level (SL) and Ignition Component (IC). Data is sourced from three official observation stations: Redfeather (50505), Estes Park (50507), and Redstone (50508).
The Fire Environment Mapping System (FEMS), a USDA application, provides Energy Release Component (ERC) and Ignition Component (IC) observations and forecasts. We are able to approximate a Staffing Level (SL) from the ERC by comparing the current ERC value to the historical distribution of ERC values for each station.
An average Fire Danger is calculated by determining the mean SL and IC values across all three stations, then using these as coordinates in the two-dimensional rating matrix below.
| Avg SL \ Avg IC | 0–20 | 21–45 | 46–65 | 66–80 | 81–100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1.5 | L | L | L | M | M |
| 1.5–2.5 | L | M | M | M | H |
| 2.5–3.5 | M | M | H | H | VH |
| 3.5–4.5 | M | H | VH | VH | E |
| 4.5–5 | H | VH | VH | E | E |
L Low M Moderate H High VH Very High E Extreme
| Date | Rating | Ignition Component (IC) | Staffing Level (SL) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03-Oct-2018 | Moderate | 34.00 | 3.00 |
| 02-Oct-2018 | Moderate | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| 01-Oct-2018 | Moderate | 24.67 | 3.33 |
| 30-Sep-2018 | Moderate | 30.00 | 3.33 |
| 29-Sep-2018 | High | 53.67 | 3.33 |
| 28-Sep-2018 | Moderate | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| 27-Sep-2018 | High | 44.00 | 4.33 |
| 26-Sep-2018 | Very High | 56.00 | 3.67 |
| 25-Sep-2018 | High | 37.67 | 3.67 |
| 24-Sep-2018 | Moderate | 34.00 | 3.33 |
| 23-Sep-2018 | High | 44.67 | 4.00 |
| 22-Sep-2018 | Very High | 65.67 | 4.00 |
| 21-Sep-2018 | Moderate | 29.33 | 3.33 |
| 20-Sep-2018 | Very High | 59.67 | 3.67 |
| 19-Sep-2018 | High | 22.00 | 3.67 |
| 18-Sep-2018 | High | 43.00 | 4.00 |
| 17-Sep-2018 | High | 28.00 | 3.67 |
| 16-Sep-2018 | Very High | 63.00 | 5.00 |
| 15-Sep-2018 | Extreme | 68.50 | 5.00 |
| 12-Sep-2018 | Extreme | 98.00 | 98.00 |
